- Nifty +1.4% / Sensex +1.2% — fifth weekly gain in seven.
- Bank Nifty hit a fresh ATH led by HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.
- FIIs sold ₹14,200 cr cash; DIIs absorbed ₹18,900 cr.
- IT index −2.3% on weak TCS commentary and rupee strength.
- Crude at $71 — tailwind for OMCs and paints sector.
What actually moved the market this week
The headline number — Nifty closing above 24,800 — undersells how violent the rotation underneath has been. Private banks added almost 600 points of index contribution by themselves, while IT majors quietly bled 180 points.
The single biggest tell: every dip below the 20-DMA was bought within the same session. That is not retail FOMO — that is systematic SIP money plus LIC's NPS book showing up the moment FIIs hit the offer.
Sector heatmap — winners & losers
Winners: Banks (+3.8%), Realty (+3.1%), Auto (+2.4%), Capital Goods (+2.0%). Losers: IT (−2.3%), Pharma (−0.6%), FMCG flat.
Realty is the dark-horse story. DLF, Oberoi and Prestige all printed 52-week highs on the back of strong Q4 pre-sales data — a leading indicator most desks are still ignoring.
The FII vs DII tug-of-war
FIIs have now sold in 9 of the last 11 sessions, yet the index is up. That is mathematically only possible because DII inflows are absorbing every block. SIP run-rate has crossed ₹26,000 cr/month — the highest in history.
Translation: until SIP flows break, every meaningful dip is a buy. That changes ONLY if (a) US 10Y yield breaks 4.7%, or (b) crude blows past $85.
RBI policy on Wednesday is the single biggest event. Consensus expects a hold with a dovish tilt — that would be rocket fuel for rate-sensitives (banks, realty, NBFCs, auto). Watch 24,650 as the line in the sand on Nifty; 25,100 is the breakout level above which momentum funds re-engage.
MSCI rebalance flow + dovish RBI = double tailwind. Breakout from 6-month base.
Pre-sales beat consensus by 22%. Strongest balance sheet in the sector.
Monsoon forecast above-normal → tractor cycle revival + new SUV launch on Jun-04.
Defence order book at ₹76,000 cr. Govt capex push pre-budget.
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 02 Jun | May Auto sales numbers | High |
| Tue 03 Jun | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | Medium |
| Wed 04 Jun | RBI Monetary Policy | High |
| Thu 05 Jun | ECB Rate Decision | Medium |
| Fri 06 Jun | US Non-Farm Payrolls | High |
Educational content only — not investment advice. Stock suggestions are outlooks based on publicly available data and may change without notice. Do your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before acting.